A regular guy’s look at the state of the movie industry, part one of three…

A few weeks ago Disney’s first post Pixar computer animated movie
Chicken Little pulled into theaters. Being a Disney CG movie, this movie is bound to do pretty well because, with few exceptions, these movies always bring in a nice chunk of change for the mouse house. With the doom and gloom that movie studios have been spreading all over the internet since the first few weeks of the summer, it seems only fitting that this year one of it’s biggest studios will put out a blockbuster film based on a children’s story about a chicken that runs around claiming the sky is falling after having something fall on it’s head.

If you have spent any time since mid summer on any movie websites (my favorites being www.Joblow.com, www.CHUD.com, and www.comingsoon.net), the biggest news coming out of Hollywood isn’t the Oscar caliber lineup of movies coming out at the end of the year or the Summer Blockbusters that are currently in production. No, movie studios are kicking into panic mode while staring at the prospect that they will be losing money this year. Some out of Hollywood are prognosticating that the sky is falling and we may be looking at the end of the movie theater as we know it.

There are plenty of excuses and finger pointing as to why this is happening. Studios blame the skyrocketing cost of filmmaking, dvd sales, cable television, the internet, video rental by mail, and on demand video, while movie goers just want to know why they are supposed to pay eight to ten dollars to sit through movies like The Island and Stealth when they can sit at home and complain about how much they suck. This week we will look at moviegoers and entertainment website writer’s rationale for the drop in revenue.

The numbers:
According to www.boxofficemojo.com, as of the 13th of November, box office sales have been down 7.9% compared to last year. In fact, you would have to go back to 2001 to see a year where the studios have made less money year to date. In every year since 2001, they have seen a steady profit. So, I’ll use that time span as a benchmark.

Are people spending less money at the theaters?
(not adjusted for ticket prices or inflation) (courtesy of www.imdb.com)
Total gross sales: Here are the gross sales of the top ten movies for the last five years:
2005: $2.10b (one grossing over $300m four grossing over $200m)
2004: $2.76b (three grossing over $300m, three grossing over $200m)
2003: $2.36b (three grossing over $300m, two grossing over $200m)
2002: $2.54b (three grossing over $300m, four grossing over $200m)
2001: $2.34b (two grossing over $300m, four grossing over 4200m)

As you can see, there has been a drop in the gross earning of this year’s and for the first time in the last five years, there was only one $300 million movie. Is there any kind of discernable reason for this?

Whether or not a movie is good is fairly subjective and if you subscribe to the idea that a good movie will make a lot of money, that unfortunately is not the case. Most of the best movies each year are barely shown at your local multiplex, and if they are, then most of them don’t make “Summer movie” numbers and barely make a blip on the gross receipts. In my opinion, a fair indicator of whether or not the movies that affect the bottom line are getting better or worse is to look at those that make a bigger dent in Hollywood’s gross receipts. Rottentomatoes is a large database of reviews where the average moviegoer can give a yeah or nay on a scale of 1 to 100 and is probably the closest we can get to quantifying whether or not these large Summer movies are getting better or worse, which would surely affect Hollywood’s bottom line.

Average theatergoer rating of the top ten movies of 2001-2005 as found on Rottentomatoes.
2005: 82, 72, 74, 83, 83, 54, 61, 68, 30, 25=63.2%
2004: 88, 93, 51, 39, 97, 89, 46, 81, 42, 56=68.2%
2003: 95, 98, 79, 75, 51, 87, 84, 72, 75, 24=74%
2002: 90, 98, 65, 82, 77, 76, 56, 36, 77, 87=73.5%
2001: 78, 93, 88, 95, 49, 46, 25, 80, 51, 45=65%

Looking at the numbers above compared to the gross receipts of the same year (generally), there seems to be a direct correlation between the average movie goers opinions on these movies compared to the total amount of money the films have made each year. That isn’t to say that some incredibly bad movies didn’t make a lot of money. It seems in the last few years, those movies were seemed to be weighted by movies people really liked, pushing the gross sales higher. Please note that this year is the only year in the last five that did not have a single movie that rated higher than an 83, while most years had at least three films rated over 85. So, it seems to me that one of the reasons this years movie receipts fell flat could be the lack of great movies to bring up the average of the mediocre ones. So it seems that their may be a point to the fans and entertainment magazine writers’ argument.

In an attempt to weigh both sides of this issue, next week, I am going to take a look at the movie studios explanation of the slump in movie attendance and overall receipts, and whether this is a fluke or if the sky is really falling. We will end this three part article with a look at the studios attempt to make sure this doesn’t happen next year, and whether, in my opinion, they are on the right track. Or just as importantly, whether or not it really matter.

At your local multiplex: (11/18/2005)

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire: Fantasy
Daniel Radcliffe, Emma Watson, Rupert Grint, Robbie Coltrane, Michael Gambon, Alan Rickman, Maggie Smith
Plot: In the fourth installment of the Harry Potter Series, Harry (Daniel Radcliffe), is invited to participate in the Tri-Wizard tournament, a tournament for only the most experienced Wizards. Hogwarts is thrown into disarray when the sign that signals the return of Voldemort is seen in the sky, all while Harry tries to find a date to the Hogwart’s Yule Ball dance.
Buzz: It’s the next Harry Potter movie. The theaters are going to be packed this weekend and every other movie on the market is going to scrambling for the crumbs. For those that aren’t Harry Potter fans, the good news is that the Superman Returns trailer is going to preview in front of this movie.

Walk the Line: Biopic/Drama
Joaquin Phoenix, Reese Witherspoon, Ginnifer Goodwin, Robert Patrick
Plot: A biopic about the life and music of Johnny Cash.
Buzz: Everyone is just waiting for the Joaquin Phoenix Oscar nomination and people that have seen this are talking about last year’s Ray. If the trailers and the buzz is any indication, this is a must see for any Johnny Cash fan.

This week on DVD: (11/15/2005)

As always, please drop me a line and let me know what you think of this week’s article at DPlace76@yahoo.com, or read my latest random musing at www.livejournal.com/users/bigdpimpin. Also, I have added a few new threads to my little part of the Forums section coincidentally titled, “The Weigh In”. Check it out. You know I wouldn’t steer you wrong.