The Weigh In #57

After taking the opportunity to look at the internet buzz surrounding each of the big movies you will all be hearing about over the next three months, I thought I would take it one step further this week and predict the future of sorts. Now, of course there is absolutely no way I can be right about this, because it is hard enough tell what people are going to watch in any given week, let alone over a full summer. Lord knows there are some pretty screwy examples of that every Monday. So, here it is in all its glory…

Dana’s top ten summer movies of 2006; complete with weekend box office predictions and end of the year grosses (sure to be completely wrong).

Drum roll please…

10. Talladega Nights-The Ballad of Ricky Bobby
Final Grosses: $130million   Initial Weekend Grosses:  $45million

Just the name “Will Ferrell” will get people into the seats but these movies depend directly on the opening weekend. With good reviews and word of mouth this movie could make a lot of money over time. Since it is coming at the tail end of the summer it will probably suffer from a drop in box office but do really well on DVD.

9. Nacho Libre
Final Grosses: $145million    Initial Weekend Grosses: $55million

Jack Black’s latest comedy vehicle will probably do well for the first two weeks leading up to the juggernaut weeks of Superman Returns and Pirates of the Caribbean 2. Being a comedy though will allow it to be an alternative to both films, allowing it to do relatively well.

8. Clerks 2
Final Grosses: $155million    Initial Weekend Grosses: $65million

The long awaited (depending on whom you ask) sequel to Kevin Smith’s cult classic should open pretty huge. You really can’t look at his previous films for help with this one, but I think this will be one of the movies people go and see once they are tired of the huge summer movies and that will be a big reason for its large grosses. Even so, this is one of those films that will make far more on DVD.

7. Lady in the Water
Final Grosses: $160million    Initial Weekend Grosses: $47million

The director’s name alone should fill seats. The initial opening will probably be lower than his 50-60 million dollar average only because Shyamalan’s last movie, The Village, was his first movie panned by pretty much everyone. With word of mouth though, it should do better than The Village ($114,700,000) but fall short of Signs ($227,965,000). It is the last serious movie of the summer and is a few weeks separated from the wake of Superman Returns and Pirates of the Caribbean 2.

6. Snakes on a Plane
Final Grosses: $170million    Initial Weekend Grosses: $85million

I am convinced that regardless of what this movie is actually like, it will have a huge weekend. Now if it is horrible and just one big marketing gimmick, its audience will fall apart and it will probably just push over a hundred million, if it is a good and cheesy, it could get a nice repeat audience and push past the $150million dollar mark.

5. Cars:
Final Grosses:  $205million    Initial Weekend Grosses: $75million

This movie will have a decent opening weekend but the real impressive thing about Pixar movies is how long they stay in theaters and make money. An early summer release and a lack of children’s animation will allow it to stay in theaters longer than most summer movies. While $205million is impressive for a summer film, it won’t match the box office or longevity of Pixar’s last two films The Incredibles ($261,437,000) (7 months), or certainly Finding Nemo ($339,714,000) (6months).

4. The DaVinci Code
Final Grosses: $220million    Initial Weekend Grosses: $103million*

With a big opening weekend, and an early start to the summer season, this movie will probably have some legs and will play through most of the summer. While the furor will die down as the summer actually starts, money will trickle in through the middle of June, allowing it to just break the 200 million dollar mark.

3. X-Men: The Last Stand
Final Grosses: $276million    Initial Weekend Grosses: $123million*

People will be seeing this movie multiple times and although its audience will probably drop off at least 50% after the first weekend, it will keep rolling along with no real competition until the end of June, easily surpassing X2($215,000,000) and the quarter billion dollar mark.

2. Pirates of the Caribbean-Dead Man’s Chest
Final Grosses: $315million    Initial Weekend Grosses:$125million

Drawn into theaters by the overall appeal of the original and with a fourth of July weekend opening, this movie will have a huge opening weekend but while the original made its grosses ($305,388,000) mostly over 6 months and through word of mouth, this film has everyone’s attention and will make a little more money, just much more quickly than the original.

1. Superman Returns
Final Grosses: $410million    Initial Weekend Grosses: $115million

Without a doubt, the most anticipated superhero movies in years, is guaranteed a huge opening weekend and as long as it is a good movie, its fans will see it multiple times and it will pass the quarter of a billion dollar mark probably in its first few weeks. Fans of comic book movies come out in droves and this will be no exception. Because of Superman’s iconic and more mainstream appeal, it will also bring out regular movie goers, probably not the first weekend for fear of being run over by geeks, but for plenty of weeks afterwards.

And now for those that I think may not cut the mustard:

Click: This movie really may be completely overlooked by most audiences even though it is headlined by Adam Sandler.

Miami Vice: Even though it has strong stars with Jamie Foxx and Colin Ferrell and is directed by the acclaimed Michael Mann, I don’t think this will really hit audiences.

A Scanner Darkly: While a really cool idea, I think that it won’t be strong enough to attract moviegoers, but the curiosity may be too much for DVD renters.

*This article was written after the initial weekend announcements were made and these numbers are pulled after the initial grosses were announced.

All gross number for previously released movies are courtesy of www.imdb.com.

Well, there it is. Sure to be completely wrong and probably a few of those are a little silly. But it is all in fun and I hope you enjoy my occasional indulgences. If you want to know how in the world I came up with these numbers or want to start a fun little movie geek fight of words, drop me a line at DPlace76@yahoo.com. Come up with some interesting arguments and I will talk about it in a future article.

This week in Superman Returns news:
I just signed up for my press pass to a preview screening of Superman Returns, but sadly nothing for you this week. Expect to see my review on the 27th or 28th.

This weekend at your local multiplex (6/2/2006)

The Breakup: Romantic Comedy
Vince Vaughn, Jennifer Aniston, Jason Bateman, John Favreau, Cole Hauser
Plot: After one too many nit pick fights, Vaughn and Aniston decide to break off their relationship. The film examines the war-like tactics each use to keep the loft they share.
Buzz: As far as movies go, it is either X-Men or this. Be prepared to sit through this with your girlfriend, because God knows unless she is a comic nerd, you’ll certainly be paying for it later if you do happen to get her there.

This week on DVD (5/30/2006)

Date Movie
Marilyn Monroe Collection
Riddick Trilogy
Platoon (se)
Smokey and the Bandit (se)
Freedomland
The Dukes of Hazzard (season 6)
Night Stalker (the series)
Numbers (season 1)
Bunker

As always, if you want to chat a little or maybe have a question to ask the Amazing Dana, email me at DPlace@resource-lending.com. You can check out my random musing at www.livejournal.com/users/bigdpimpin and be sure to find out what the Stumblebum guys are up to on our myspace site.