The Weigh In 67

What happened to all of that mutherf***in money that Snakes on a mutherf***in Plane was supposed to make?

One question has been popping up over the last few days all over the entertainment news sites and a few mainstream ones (hint: read above).

With the massive internet buzz that has had people clamoring on every message board, putting together homages and parodying the insane title, Snakes on a Plane should have had lines around the block and every showing should have been booked hours before showtime on its opening weekend right? Makes sense. This movie was a financial Clydesdale that would stomp its competitors into the dust. Right? Well, umm, nope. Until late Sunday night there was even a question as to whether this film would even take the number one spot over the film Talladega Nights.

I have read articles offering such answers as “the hype was too much for everyone” to “this movie was meant for fans anyways” to “not enough star power”. Here on “The Weigh In”, I have my own theory that can be summed up in a simple little phrase:

“It just isn’t happening”

While a pretty simple and probably pretty obvious phrase, there are three general points (and one specific one) that I base my supposition on.

1. Having been bitten in the past by Hollywood hype that almost inevitably leads to a crappy film, moviegoers are less likely to take risks on unknown films at theaters, and with a quick turnaround time on DVD, may check it out at home.
2. Taking into consideration number one, films that can attach themselves to something else successful have a better chance of meeting and exceeding expectations in theaters. Less risk=less risk of being disappointed.
3. Hype generally cannot overcome one and two, word of mouth is a much better way for a film with no track record of meeting or exceeding expectations, something that cannot be done in a single weekend. Number three does not apply to films that have the benefit of number two because hype had the reverse affect. Simply because the hype is based on the previous track record, not the actual film.
4. 4. More specifically to this film, horror/action films typically don’t make a lot of money upfront; they are usually the best example of the power of word of mouth, for good or bad.

First about #4:

For most films, the opening weekend is the make or break period and industry analysts try to estimate how much a film will make based on time of year, previous films of the same genre and in some cases, the previous film in the series. In the case of Snakes on a Plane, without internet hype entering into the picture, most analysts figured that a film like this would probably pull in about 13-16million its first weekend. Actually a pretty decent number for a horror film that was budgeted at around $35million. Executives were hoping to take advantage of the massive groundswell of anticipation for this film and actually boosted the estimate to probably double that number if not better. Horror films, no matter how popular they are initially don’t make a ton of money. If they do become major financial successes, it is usually due to longevity and a cult following on DVD. Consider this, according to imdb.com, of the 354 top grossing movies of all time there are only five films that I think would fit the above classification. Jaws, Gremlins, Jaws II, What Lies Beneath, Seven, The Towering Inferno, and The Ring. Of those films, Jaws and The Ring seem most likely to have huge opening weekends due to hype, right? Jaws had a mediocre opening at $7million and actually made more money each subsequent week after. The Ring almost exactly mimicked what happened with Jaws. The same with the rest of these films. Based on #4 alone, it was simply too much to ask for a film like this to make a massive statement.

While my little one line explanation and subsequent points may seem a little obvious to the average moviegoer, for some reason the three general ones are all sticking points with experts and movie insiders. They continue to hope for that one big movie to just explode, make millions of dollars and be done, for no reason at all. Recent trends seem to suggest that they are living in the past. I am sure there are exceptions and are movies that for some inexplicable reason make gangbusters all at once, but I couldn’t find a single top ten film in the last five years^* that fit the criteria executives at New Line Cinema were hoping for. A film that would come out of nowhere with nothing to hang its hat on and make an insane amount of money its opening weekend, all based on the hype.

I was hoping to be able to break down and talk about each of the three generic points individually but as I put this article together I realize that all three points are interdependent on each other, so I wanted to sum them all up in one sentence.

“I couldn’t find a single top ten film in the last five years that fit the criteria executives at New Line were hoping for.”

Balderdash you say. Remember that popular movie that everyone was talking about a few years ago… Well probably not balderdash but something less likely to make it on the screen of a PG film.

Think about it, we are trying to find a film that made a ton of money its first weekend, that isn’t a sequel or tied to a particular actor or director’s past films. A film where the hype was solely based on the release of the film itself. According to imdb.com, no film in the last five years fits those criteria.

I address the biggest reason for this in a previous 2 part article about sequels and trilogies (weigh in #62 and #63). According to imdb.com, most of the top films of the last five years have all been sequels to previous films. This really seems to suggest that people would rather spend their money on something comfortable rather than walking into a theater sight unseen, regardless of the amount of money studios put into marketing these films.

Top films that tend to buck this trend of safe sequels, and films with a track record to hang their film on tend to be smaller films that outlast the normal early surge and actually make more money following the weeks after its initial opening. Examples of these are: My Big Fat Greek Wedding (initial opening $1.6million, made over 100% more every week for the following month) and Wedding Crashers (initial opening 33million, the next week made another $50million).

So in conclusion, the opening weekend for Snakes on a Plane may not be a complete bust for everyone that was hoping for a big movie. You have to give it time. This movie really was doomed to failure in its first weekend. It is going to be the following weeks and months that tell the ultimate tale about this movie. Good word of mouth and a steady showing are going to make or break this movie.


This weekend at your local multiplex (8/25/2006)

Beerfest: Comedy
Jay Chandrasekhar, Kevin Heffernan, Steve Lemme, Paul Soter, Erik Stolhanske
Plot: While at Oktoberfest in Germany, two brothers stumble upon an ancient beer drinking contest. After being humiliated, they decide to put together a group of drinkers and train for a comeback.
Buzz: From the creators of Supertroopers, this film will have its followers. Plus a film about beer and half naked women will always have a built in audience.

Invincible: Drama
Mark Wahlberg, Greg Kinnear, Kevin Conway, Elizabeth Banks, Michael Rispoli.
Plot: After new coach of the Philadelphia Eagles decides to hold open tryouts to help spur a downtrodden team. When a regular Joe makes the team, he becomes a rallying cry for a down on its luck town.
Buzz: (see review)

Idlewild: Musical/Drama
Andre Benjamin, Antwan Patton, Paula Patton, Terrence Howard, Patti Labelle, Ving Rhames
Plot: This musical tells the story of a shy piano player and a boisterous club owner in the 30s told thru dance and musical numbers by Outkast.
Buzz: Musicals normally do pretty well and Outkast has a pretty huge following.

How to Eat Fried Worms: Children
Luke Benwald, Tom Cavanaugh, Kimberly Williams, Hallie Kate Eisenberg
Plot: A boy thrown into a new school is tormented by the school bully and in order to prove himself, he boasts that he can eat 20 worms in one day. Based on the popular novel by Thomas Rockwell.
Buzz: (see review)


This week on DVD (8/22/2006)

Poseidon
Silent Hill
Just My Luck
The Transporter Box Set
Phat Girlz
Dances with Wolves (se)
Veronica Mars (season 2)
Threshold (series)
Invasion (season 1)
Film Geek
Conviction (series)
Double Indemnity (se)
The Wizard (se)
House (season 2)
The Worst Week of My Life (season 1)
Blue Thunder (series)
Radioland Murders

As always, you can show me your undying adulation or send all death threats to DPlace76@yahoo.com. You can read about my innermost thoughts and desires at http://bigdpimpin.livejournal.com/. Head on over to www.myspace.com/stumblebumstudios to become our friend and keep up to date on all things Stumblebum.

^* I use the five year mark only as a guideline because I want to look at current trends and anything further back would just dilute things. While this actually happened pretty frequently with films in the mid and late nineties like Godzilla, and Independence Day, over the past half decade this really hasn’t happened at all.